AA Stock Analysis & Forecast (2026)

Alcoa Corporation Basic Materials Aluminum
$67.44
Current Price
59%
Hold
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Data refreshed: April 22, 2026

Key Financial Metrics

Market Cap
$17.79B
P/E Ratio (TTM)
17.3x
P/E Forward
10.5x
Revenue Growth
-5.2%
Gross Margin
16.1%
Net Margin
8.2%
Return on Equity
15.4%
Debt/Equity
0.37

AI Analysis Summary

Alcoa Corporation (AA) is a Basic Materials company in the Aluminum industry with a 59% Hold Score. Key strengths include Return on Equity (15.4%). Areas to watch: Revenue Growth (-5.2%). Our AI evaluates 8 fundamental categories including revenue growth, margin quality, balance sheet strength, cash flow generation, return on capital, and valuation metrics.

Revenue Growth: Weak Gross Margin: Average Net Margin: Thin Return on Equity: Good Debt/Equity: Moderate

This analysis is generated by StrongBuyAnalytics AI using publicly available financial data from SEC filings, earnings reports, and market feeds. It is not personalized investment advice. See our methodology and disclaimer.

AA Fundamental Analysis Report
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59%
Strong Buy Score
  • 8 Fundamental Categories Analyzed
  • Revenue & Growth Trends
  • Margin & Profitability Analysis
  • Balance Sheet Strength
  • Cash Flow Quality
  • Valuation Assessment
  • AI-Powered Investment Insights
Get Your Free AA Report

How It Works: AI Stock Analysis in 60 Seconds

See how our AI analyzes AA fundamentals to generate buy/sell signals and Strong Buy Scores.

Why AA Has a 59% Score

Our AI evaluates Alcoa Corporation's fundamentals across multiple dimensions. Here is what is driving the current Hold rating:

Recent Catalysts for AA

Key developments and data points that may impact Alcoa Corporation's trajectory:

Earnings declined -22.7% — watch for stabilization in coming quarters.
Wall Street consensus target is $73.02 (+8.3% from current price), based on 13 analyst estimates.
Analyst consensus recommendation: Buy.
Institutional ownership at 84.2% — strong smart-money backing.

AA vs. Peers

How Alcoa Corporation stacks up against comparable Basic Materials companies on key metrics:

Ticker Price Market Cap P/E Rev Growth Net Margin ROE
AA $67.44 $17.79B 17.3x -5.2% 8.2% 15.4%
AAPL $268.82 $3.95T 34.0x 15.7% 27.0% 152.0%
MSFT $427.90 $3.18T 26.8x 16.7% 39.0% 34.4%
GOOGL $336.44 $4.07T 31.2x 18.0% 32.8% 35.7%
AMZN $249.91 $2.69T 34.9x 13.6% 10.8% 22.3%

Main Risks for AA Investors

Every investment carries risk. Here are the specific risk factors our analysis identified for Alcoa Corporation:

Revenue Growth (-5.2%)
High beta of 1.70 means the stock is 70% more volatile than the market — expect larger drawdowns in corrections.

Generate the full PDF report for a detailed risk-reward framework and bear-case scenarios.

AA Balance Sheet & Cash Flow

A snapshot of Alcoa Corporation's financial health based on the most recent filings:

Total Cash
$1.35B
Total Debt
$2.55B
Current Ratio
1.48
FCF Yield
6.1%
EBITDA
$1.68B
Operating Margin
13.3%

Data sourced from the latest SEC filings. Generate the full PDF report for detailed balance sheet and cash flow commentary.

AA Valuation Snapshot

Trailing P/E
17.3x
Fairly valued
Forward P/E
10.5x
Earnings growth expected
Price / Book
2.6x
Reasonable
PEG Ratio
8.36
Expensive vs growth
Analyst Target (Mean)
$73.02
Range: $42 – $92
52-Week Price Range — AA is trading at 84% of its range
$23.60 (52W Low) $75.70 (52W High)

Is AA a Buy Right Now?

Based on our AI-powered fundamental analysis, AA has a Strong Buy Score of 59%, earning a "Hold" rating. This score synthesizes 8 key financial metrics to provide an objective investment signal.

Moderate Buy Signal

Alcoa Corporation shows mixed fundamentals with some strengths and areas to monitor. Positives include Return on Equity (15.4%). Watch for Revenue Growth (-5.2%).

AA AI Buy & Sell Signals Explained

Our AI analyzes Alcoa Corporation's financial statements to generate buy/sell signals based on quantitative metrics, not market sentiment or news headlines. Here's what drives the 59% score:

  • Revenue Growth: -5.2% year-over-year (declining)
  • Gross Margin: 16.1% (tight margins)
  • Net Margin: 8.2% (profitable)
  • Return on Equity: 15.4% (excellent capital efficiency)

Generate the full PDF report for complete category-by-category scoring and AI-powered investment recommendations.

Key Support / Demand Zones

Technical traders can view real-time demand and supply zones for AA on our Demand Zones page. These zones identify key price levels where institutional buying or selling has historically occurred.

With AA currently trading at $67.44, our system monitors proximity to these critical levels and can alert you when the stock approaches support or resistance zones.

Subscribe to demand zone alerts to receive real-time notifications when AA reaches key technical levels.

Earnings & Revenue Outlook

Alcoa Corporation operates in the Basic Materials sector, specifically in Aluminum. Understanding earnings trends is crucial for forecasting AA's trajectory.

Current revenue growth of -5.2% trails the average company.

Visit our Earnings Calendar to track upcoming AA earnings dates and historical beat/miss patterns. Sign up for earnings alerts to get notified before announcements.

AA Stock Forecast (Next 3–12 Months)

Our AI projects AA's trajectory based on current fundamentals and historical patterns. With a 59% Strong Buy Score, here's what the data suggests:

Mixed Outlook: Alcoa Corporation shows moderate fundamental strength. Revenue growth at -5.2% and warrants monitoring. The stock may trade sideways or experience modest gains depending on execution and market conditions.

For a complete 12-month price forecast with specific bull/bear scenarios, generate the full PDF report.

Valuation Metrics (P/E, Growth, Margins)

Understanding valuation is critical for determining if AA is fairly priced. Here's the current snapshot:

  • Market Capitalization: $17.79B
  • P/E Ratio (TTM): 17.3x (fairly valued)
  • Forward P/E: 10.5x (based on analyst estimates)
  • Debt/Equity: 0.37 (conservative balance sheet)

Our AI weighs these metrics against growth rates and margin quality to determine if AA offers compelling risk-adjusted returns at current prices.

Bull Case for AA

Here's why investors are bullish on Alcoa Corporation:

  • Return on Equity (15.4%)

While these positives exist, investors should weigh them against the risks outlined in the bear case below.

Bear Case & Risks for AA

Every investment carries risk. Here are potential concerns for AA investors:

  • Revenue Growth (-5.2%)

The full PDF report includes a detailed bear case analysis with specific risk ratings for each category.

Summary / 12-Month Outlook

AA Summary: Alcoa Corporation earns a 59% Hold Score based on AI analysis of fundamental data. Trading at $67.44 with a $17.79B market cap, the stock presents a balanced risk/reward profile for the coming year.

Bull Case: Return on Equity (15.4%)

Watch: Revenue Growth (-5.2%)

For the complete analysis with specific price considerations, growth projections, and AI-powered buy/hold/sell recommendations, generate your free AA PDF report.

Learn More About Stock Analysis

Deepen your understanding of the concepts used in this AA analysis:

Fundamental Analysis Guide

Learn how to evaluate stocks using financial statements and key metrics.

Understanding P/E Ratio

What P/E ratio tells you about a stock's valuation and growth expectations.

Return on Equity (ROE)

Why ROE matters for stock selection and how to interpret it.

Stock Valuation Methods

Compare DCF, P/E, and other approaches to value stocks like AA.

What Are Demand Zones?

Find key support and resistance levels for AA and other stocks.

How to Read Earnings Reports

Understand earnings per share, revenue surprises, and guidance.

Related Tools for AA

Demand Zone Analyzer AA Live Chart AA SEC Filing News Earnings Calendar Institutional Ownership Sector Scanner Average Down Calculator

AA SEC Filing News

Latest SEC filings for AA explained in plain English — insider buys/sells (Form 4), proposed sales (Form 144), material events (8-K), and quarterly & annual reports.

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Frequently Asked Questions about AA

Is AA a good buy right now?
AA currently has a Strong Buy Score of 59% (Hold). AA shows moderate buy signals. The stock has mixed fundamentals worth reviewing in detail. Generate a free PDF report for specific buy/hold/sell recommendations.
What is the AA stock forecast for 2026?
Our AI forecasts AA based on current fundamentals: revenue growth of -5.2%, net margin of 8.2%, and P/E of 17.3x. The 59% Strong Buy Score reflects our outlook combining growth trajectory, margin quality, and valuation. See the full 12-month projection in your PDF report.
What are key support and resistance levels for AA?
View real-time AA demand zones (support) and supply zones (resistance) on our Demand Zones page. With AA currently at $67.44, you can see how close the stock is to key technical levels. Subscribe to get alerts when AA approaches these zones.
How do AA fundamentals compare to peers?
Alcoa Corporation operates in the Basic Materials sector. Key metrics for peer comparison: Gross margin 16.1%, ROE 15.4%, Debt/Equity 0.37. The 59% Strong Buy Score factors in how these metrics stack up against industry averages. Data is refreshed daily.
Is the AA analysis PDF report free?
Yes! Your first AA fundamental analysis report is completely free with no credit card required. The PDF includes the full Strong Buy Score breakdown, all 8 fundamental categories analyzed, AI-powered insights, and specific investment recommendations. Additional reports are available through our subscription plans starting at $24/month.
What is Alcoa Corporation's market cap and P/E ratio?
Alcoa Corporation (AA) has a market cap of $17.79B and a trailing P/E ratio of 17.3x (forward P/E: 10.5x). These valuation metrics are key factors in our Strong Buy Score calculation. See all metrics in the PDF report for comprehensive valuation analysis.

This AA analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All data is sourced from public filings and market feeds. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Read our full disclaimer.