MPC Stock Analysis & Forecast (2026)

Marathon Petroleum Corporation Energy Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
$221.84
Current Price
51%
Hold
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Data refreshed: April 22, 2026

Key Financial Metrics

Market Cap
$65.39B
P/E Ratio (TTM)
16.8x
P/E Forward
11.3x
Revenue Growth
-1.2%
Gross Margin
10.3%
Net Margin
3.0%
Return on Equity
24.2%
Debt/Equity
1.43

AI Analysis Summary

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a Energy company in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry with a 51% Hold Score. Key strengths include Return on Equity (24.2%). Areas to watch: Revenue Growth (-1.2%), Debt/Equity (1.43). Our AI evaluates 8 fundamental categories including revenue growth, margin quality, balance sheet strength, cash flow generation, return on capital, and valuation metrics.

Revenue Growth: Weak Gross Margin: Average Net Margin: Thin Return on Equity: Excellent Debt/Equity: High Risk

This analysis is generated by StrongBuyAnalytics AI using publicly available financial data from SEC filings, earnings reports, and market feeds. It is not personalized investment advice. See our methodology and disclaimer.

MPC Fundamental Analysis Report
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51%
Strong Buy Score
  • 8 Fundamental Categories Analyzed
  • Revenue & Growth Trends
  • Margin & Profitability Analysis
  • Balance Sheet Strength
  • Cash Flow Quality
  • Valuation Assessment
  • AI-Powered Investment Insights
Get Your Free MPC Report

How It Works: AI Stock Analysis in 60 Seconds

See how our AI analyzes MPC fundamentals to generate buy/sell signals and Strong Buy Scores.

Why MPC Has a 51% Score

Our AI evaluates Marathon Petroleum Corporation's fundamentals across multiple dimensions. Here is what is driving the current Hold rating:

Recent Catalysts for MPC

Key developments and data points that may impact Marathon Petroleum Corporation's trajectory:

Earnings grew 350.7% — accelerating profitability could drive re-rating.
Wall Street consensus target is $245.24 (+10.5% from current price), based on 17 analyst estimates.
Analyst consensus recommendation: Buy.
Institutional ownership at 77.3% — strong smart-money backing.
Dividend yield of 1.73% provides income while you wait for capital appreciation.

MPC vs. Peers

How Marathon Petroleum Corporation stacks up against comparable Energy companies on key metrics:

Ticker Price Market Cap P/E Rev Growth Net Margin ROE
MPC $221.84 $65.39B 16.8x -1.2% 3.0% 24.2%
AAPL $268.82 $3.95T 34.0x 15.7% 27.0% 152.0%
MSFT $427.90 $3.18T 26.8x 16.7% 39.0% 34.4%
GOOGL $336.44 $4.07T 31.2x 18.0% 32.8% 35.7%
AMZN $249.91 $2.69T 34.9x 13.6% 10.8% 22.3%

Main Risks for MPC Investors

Every investment carries risk. Here are the specific risk factors our analysis identified for Marathon Petroleum Corporation:

Revenue Growth (-1.2%)
Debt/Equity (1.43)
Low beta of 0.58 suggests limited upside participation in bull markets.
High leverage amplifies downside risk if revenue softens or interest rates rise.

Generate the full PDF report for a detailed risk-reward framework and bear-case scenarios.

MPC Balance Sheet & Cash Flow

A snapshot of Marathon Petroleum Corporation's financial health based on the most recent filings:

Total Cash
$3.67B
Total Debt
$34.36B
Current Ratio
1.26
FCF Yield
3.9%
EBITDA
$9.47B
Operating Margin
6.3%

Data sourced from the latest SEC filings. Generate the full PDF report for detailed balance sheet and cash flow commentary.

MPC Valuation Snapshot

Trailing P/E
16.8x
Fairly valued
Forward P/E
11.3x
Earnings growth expected
Price / Book
3.8x
Premium
PEG Ratio
0.83
Undervalued vs growth
Analyst Target (Mean)
$245.24
Range: $174 – $331
Dividend Yield
1.73%
5Y avg: 2.42%
52-Week Price Range — MPC is trading at 73% of its range
$132.00 (52W Low) $255.77 (52W High)

Is MPC a Buy Right Now?

Based on our AI-powered fundamental analysis, MPC has a Strong Buy Score of 51%, earning a "Hold" rating. This score synthesizes 8 key financial metrics to provide an objective investment signal.

Moderate Buy Signal

Marathon Petroleum Corporation shows mixed fundamentals with some strengths and areas to monitor. Positives include Return on Equity (24.2%). Watch for Revenue Growth (-1.2%).

MPC AI Buy & Sell Signals Explained

Our AI analyzes Marathon Petroleum Corporation's financial statements to generate buy/sell signals based on quantitative metrics, not market sentiment or news headlines. Here's what drives the 51% score:

  • Revenue Growth: -1.2% year-over-year (declining)
  • Gross Margin: 10.3% (tight margins)
  • Net Margin: 3.0% (profitable)
  • Return on Equity: 24.2% (excellent capital efficiency)

Generate the full PDF report for complete category-by-category scoring and AI-powered investment recommendations.

Key Support / Demand Zones

Technical traders can view real-time demand and supply zones for MPC on our Demand Zones page. These zones identify key price levels where institutional buying or selling has historically occurred.

With MPC currently trading at $221.84, our system monitors proximity to these critical levels and can alert you when the stock approaches support or resistance zones.

Subscribe to demand zone alerts to receive real-time notifications when MPC reaches key technical levels.

Earnings & Revenue Outlook

Marathon Petroleum Corporation operates in the Energy sector, specifically in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Understanding earnings trends is crucial for forecasting MPC's trajectory.

Current revenue growth of -1.2% trails the average company.

Visit our Earnings Calendar to track upcoming MPC earnings dates and historical beat/miss patterns. Sign up for earnings alerts to get notified before announcements.

MPC Stock Forecast (Next 3–12 Months)

Our AI projects MPC's trajectory based on current fundamentals and historical patterns. With a 51% Strong Buy Score, here's what the data suggests:

Mixed Outlook: Marathon Petroleum Corporation shows moderate fundamental strength. Revenue growth at -1.2% and warrants monitoring. The stock may trade sideways or experience modest gains depending on execution and market conditions.

For a complete 12-month price forecast with specific bull/bear scenarios, generate the full PDF report.

Valuation Metrics (P/E, Growth, Margins)

Understanding valuation is critical for determining if MPC is fairly priced. Here's the current snapshot:

  • Market Capitalization: $65.39B
  • P/E Ratio (TTM): 16.8x (fairly valued)
  • Forward P/E: 11.3x (based on analyst estimates)
  • Debt/Equity: 1.43 (higher leverage)

Our AI weighs these metrics against growth rates and margin quality to determine if MPC offers compelling risk-adjusted returns at current prices.

Bull Case for MPC

Here's why investors are bullish on Marathon Petroleum Corporation:

  • Return on Equity (24.2%)

While these positives exist, investors should weigh them against the risks outlined in the bear case below.

Bear Case & Risks for MPC

Every investment carries risk. Here are potential concerns for MPC investors:

  • Revenue Growth (-1.2%)
  • Debt/Equity (1.43)

The full PDF report includes a detailed bear case analysis with specific risk ratings for each category.

Summary / 12-Month Outlook

MPC Summary: Marathon Petroleum Corporation earns a 51% Hold Score based on AI analysis of fundamental data. Trading at $221.84 with a $65.39B market cap, the stock presents a balanced risk/reward profile for the coming year.

Bull Case: Return on Equity (24.2%)

Watch: Revenue Growth (-1.2%), Debt/Equity (1.43)

For the complete analysis with specific price considerations, growth projections, and AI-powered buy/hold/sell recommendations, generate your free MPC PDF report.

Learn More About Stock Analysis

Deepen your understanding of the concepts used in this MPC analysis:

Fundamental Analysis Guide

Learn how to evaluate stocks using financial statements and key metrics.

Understanding P/E Ratio

What P/E ratio tells you about a stock's valuation and growth expectations.

Return on Equity (ROE)

Why ROE matters for stock selection and how to interpret it.

Stock Valuation Methods

Compare DCF, P/E, and other approaches to value stocks like MPC.

What Are Demand Zones?

Find key support and resistance levels for MPC and other stocks.

How to Read Earnings Reports

Understand earnings per share, revenue surprises, and guidance.

Related Tools for MPC

Demand Zone Analyzer MPC Live Chart MPC SEC Filing News Earnings Calendar Institutional Ownership Sector Scanner Average Down Calculator

MPC SEC Filing News

Latest SEC filings for MPC explained in plain English — insider buys/sells (Form 4), proposed sales (Form 144), material events (8-K), and quarterly & annual reports.

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Frequently Asked Questions about MPC

Is MPC a good buy right now?
MPC currently has a Strong Buy Score of 51% (Hold). MPC shows moderate buy signals. The stock has mixed fundamentals worth reviewing in detail. Generate a free PDF report for specific buy/hold/sell recommendations.
What is the MPC stock forecast for 2026?
Our AI forecasts MPC based on current fundamentals: revenue growth of -1.2%, net margin of 3.0%, and P/E of 16.8x. The 51% Strong Buy Score reflects our outlook combining growth trajectory, margin quality, and valuation. See the full 12-month projection in your PDF report.
What are key support and resistance levels for MPC?
View real-time MPC demand zones (support) and supply zones (resistance) on our Demand Zones page. With MPC currently at $221.84, you can see how close the stock is to key technical levels. Subscribe to get alerts when MPC approaches these zones.
How do MPC fundamentals compare to peers?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation operates in the Energy sector. Key metrics for peer comparison: Gross margin 10.3%, ROE 24.2%, Debt/Equity 1.43. The 51% Strong Buy Score factors in how these metrics stack up against industry averages. Data is refreshed daily.
Is the MPC analysis PDF report free?
Yes! Your first MPC fundamental analysis report is completely free with no credit card required. The PDF includes the full Strong Buy Score breakdown, all 8 fundamental categories analyzed, AI-powered insights, and specific investment recommendations. Additional reports are available through our subscription plans starting at $24/month.
What is Marathon Petroleum Corporation's market cap and P/E ratio?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) has a market cap of $65.39B and a trailing P/E ratio of 16.8x (forward P/E: 11.3x). These valuation metrics are key factors in our Strong Buy Score calculation. See all metrics in the PDF report for comprehensive valuation analysis.

This MPC analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All data is sourced from public filings and market feeds. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Read our full disclaimer.