RIVN Stock Analysis & Forecast (2026)

Rivian Automotive, Inc. Consumer Cyclical Auto Manufacturers
$16.07
Current Price
43%
Caution
View Plans
Data refreshed: August 31, 2026

Key Financial Metrics

Market Cap
$23.27B
Revenue Growth
27.2%
Gross Margin
7.5%
Net Margin
-55.0%
Return on Equity
-57.5%
Debt/Equity
1.04

AI Analysis Summary

Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) is a Consumer Cyclical company in the Auto Manufacturers industry with a 43% Caution Score. Key strengths include Revenue Growth (27.2%). Areas to watch: Net Margin (-55.0%), Return on Equity (-57.5%). The score on this page is a five-factor screen — revenue growth, gross margin, net margin, return on equity and debt-to-equity — each scored against fixed thresholds from a neutral starting point of 50%. The eight-section analysis, including moat, free cash flow, dilution and valuation, runs in the full report.

Revenue Growth: Strong Gross Margin: Average Net Margin: Negative Return on Equity: Negative Debt/Equity: High Risk

This analysis is generated by StrongBuyAnalytics AI using publicly available financial data from SEC filings, earnings reports, and market feeds. It is not personalized investment advice. See our methodology and disclaimer.

Why RIVN Has a 43% Score

4 of the inputs in our model moved RIVN's score away from the neutral baseline of 50%, landing it at 43% (Caution). Each one below is a specific figure from Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s reported financials, not a judgement call:

Recent Catalysts for RIVN

3 data points sit outside the score itself but bear on Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s next few quarters. They are reported here as observations, not predictions:

Wall Street consensus target is $19.23 (+19.6% from current price), based on 26 analyst estimates.
Analyst consensus recommendation: Hold.
Short ratio of 6.5 days to cover — elevated short interest could fuel a squeeze on positive news.

RIVN vs. LI, NIO, XPEV, F

Compared against other Auto Manufacturers companies we cover, picked for having a similar market capitalisation to RIVN.

Ticker Price Market Cap P/E Rev Growth Net Margin ROE
RIVN $16.07 $23.27B 27.2% -55.0% -57.5%
LI $12.19 $11.94B -15.1% -4.4% -6.6%
NIO $4.33 $10.86B 112.2% -9.1% -84.0%
XPEV $11.43 $10.93B 8.0% -4.1% -10.9%
F $13.95 $55.63B -3.8% -3.9% -18.3%

Main Risks for RIVN Investors

6 measurable risks showed up in Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s numbers. This is not a complete list of what could go wrong — only what is visible in the data we score:

Net Margin (-55.0%)
Return on Equity (-57.5%)
Debt/Equity (1.04)
High beta of 1.61 means the stock is 61% more volatile than the market — expect larger drawdowns in corrections.
Short interest is elevated with a 6.5-day cover ratio, indicating bearish bets against the stock.
High leverage amplifies downside risk if revenue softens or interest rates rise.

RIVN Balance Sheet & Cash Flow

Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s liquidity and cash generation as of the most recent filing — note the cash position of $5.31B against $5.35B of debt:

Total Cash
$5.31B
Total Debt
$5.35B
Current Ratio
2.10
FCF Yield
-6.6%
EBITDA
$-2,713,999,872
Operating Margin
-50.4%

Figures are drawn from Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s most recent balance sheet and cash flow statement as filed with the SEC. See the filings themselves.

RIVN Valuation Snapshot

Price / Book
4.3x
Premium
Analyst Target (Mean)
$19.23
Range: $13 – $25
52-Week Price Range — RIVN is trading at 36% of its range
$12.39 (52W Low) $22.69 (52W High)

Who Holds RIVN? — Institutional 13F Filings

Institutional investment managers with >$100 M in qualifying assets must disclose their equity positions quarterly on SEC Form 13F — typically within 45 days of quarter-end. Search those filings below to see which hedge funds, mutual funds, and asset managers reported RIVN as a holding, how many shares they held, and how positions changed quarter over quarter.

Search 13F Filings for RIVN Free · no sign-in required · live SEC EDGAR data
What you see free
Which institutions reported RIVN, share counts, reported values, and direct links to the SEC filing.
Research Pro adds
Full manager portfolios — every position a fund holds, quarter-over-quarter changes, and concentration weights.
Data limitation
13F shows long equity positions as of the filing date. Short positions, full derivatives, and current intent are not disclosed.

Is RIVN a Buy Right Now?

We do not answer that question for you, and we do not publish buy or sell calls. What we publish is a score: RIVN rates 43% on our five-factor fundamentals screen, which puts it in the "Caution" band. Everything below explains how it got there so you can disagree with it.

43% · Caution band

Rivian Automotive, Inc. falls short on several of the measures we weight most heavily. Specifically: net margin (-55.0%), return on equity (-57.5%). A low score reflects reported fundamentals only — it says nothing about the share price or about turnarounds already underway but not yet in the filings.

RIVN Earnings & Revenue Outlook

Rivian Automotive, Inc. reported revenue growth of 27.2% year over year, against a Auto Manufacturers peer set where scale and pricing power vary widely. Growth at that level is the single largest positive contributor to the RIVN score.

Track upcoming report dates on our earnings calendar.

RIVN Stock Forecast (Next 3–12 Months)

This is a fundamentals outlook, not a price target — we do not publish one. It describes what Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s current financials imply about the next three to twelve months if the trends in them hold.

Cautious: The score is weighed down by net margin (-55.0%) and return on equity (-57.5%). A recovery in those specific figures, rather than a move in the share price, is what would change this view.

Bull Case for RIVN

These are the Rivian Automotive, Inc. figures that push the score up, taken straight from the most recent reported financials:

  • Revenue Growth (27.2%)

Bear Case & Risks for RIVN

These are the figures working against RIVN in the same model:

  • Net Margin (-55.0%)
  • Return on Equity (-57.5%)
  • Debt/Equity (1.04)

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Guides to the specific measures used in this RIVN analysis:

Fundamental Analysis Guide

How the financial statements behind this page fit together.

Return on Equity (ROE)

Why RIVN's -57.5% return on equity matters for stock selection.

Stock Valuation Methods

How DCF, multiples and asset-based approaches value a company like Rivian Automotive, Inc..

How to Read Earnings Reports

Where the RIVN growth and margin figures on this page come from.

What Are Demand Zones?

The technical side we deliberately keep out of the RIVN score.

Related Tools for RIVN

Demand Zone Analyzer RIVN Live Chart RIVN SEC Filing News Earnings Calendar Institutional Ownership Sector Scanner Average Down Calculator

RIVN SEC Filing News

Latest SEC filings for RIVN explained in plain English — insider buys/sells (Form 4), proposed sales (Form 144), material events (8-K), and quarterly & annual reports.

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View all RIVN SEC Filing News →

Frequently Asked Questions about RIVN

Is RIVN a good buy right now?
We do not issue buy or sell calls. RIVN has a Strong Buy Score of 43% (Caution), which is a fundamentals rating, not a recommendation. That is at the weak end of our range, so the fundamentals warrant a close read before RIVN goes on a shortlist. The score is helped most by revenue growth (27.2%). It is held back most by net margin (-55.0%). Read how scores work to see what each input contributes.
What is the RIVN stock forecast for 2026?
We publish a fundamentals outlook rather than a price target. For 2026 the RIVN view rests on revenue growth of 27.2% and a net margin of -55.0%, which together produce the 43% Strong Buy Score. Our methodology explains how those inputs are weighted.
What are key support and resistance levels for RIVN?
Support and resistance are technical levels, so they are not part of the fundamentals score. You can see current RIVN demand zones (support) and supply zones (resistance) on our demand zones page. With RIVN at $16.07, the tool shows how far the stock sits from the nearest zone.
Which companies are RIVN's closest peers?
On this page RIVN is compared with LI, NIO, XPEV, F. Compared against other Auto Manufacturers companies we cover, picked for having a similar market capitalisation to RIVN. The table puts RIVN's a gross margin of 7.5%, an ROE of -57.5%, a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.04 next to the same figures for each peer.
What is Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s market cap and P/E ratio?
As of August 31, 2026, Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) has a market cap of $23.27B. Valuation is one of the inputs to the Strong Buy Score, alongside growth, margins, capital efficiency and balance-sheet strength.
Where does the RIVN data on this page come from?
Company financials come from Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s own filings with the SEC, with prices and consensus estimates from market data feeds; the figures on this page were last refreshed on August 31, 2026. Our data sources page lists every provider and how often each one is updated.
Is the RIVN analysis PDF report free?
Your first RIVN report is free and does not require a card. The score on this page is a five-factor screen; the report runs the deeper eight-section analysis, adding moat, free cash flow, share dilution and valuation work that is not on this page. Further reports are covered by a subscription; see pricing for the current plans.

This RIVN analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All data is sourced from public filings and market feeds. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Read our full disclaimer.